There are only hours remaining until the Q1 2022 close in Bitcoin price action. With the important quarterly candle set to close tonight, let’s look at what technicals might say about the direction of the next quarter.
The first quarter of a year, often sets the tone for the year to come. In investments, a poor Q1 performance is indicative of a bad year ahead. Considering the fact that Bitcoin price is now above $45,000 after touching $32,000 this quarter, it is tough to say the performance has been “poor” by anything other than crypto standards.
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The cryptocurrency has recovered nearly 40% from the low, leaving a long wick behind. Such a long wick suggests that before the quarter came to a close, buyers stepped up in a major way. Buyers were able to step up in a larger capacity in Q1 2022 than bears were able to in the final quarter of last year. The bearish wick to close 2021 only just made it over 30% by comparison.
By those standards, bulls might still have the upper hand. It also helps that unlike past bear markets, the quarterly Relative Strength Index was able to hold above the RSI-based moving average.
Additional comparison with past bear markets using the Ichimoku show that after each major cycle peak, both the conversion line and base line were immediately lost during the next opening quarterly candle. Bitcoin price holding above these important indicator lines for a full year should confirm it has strong support.
Donchian channels, which act as an envelope around price action, also demonstrate similar bullish behavior compared to previous cycles. Even the 2019 stopped precisely at the middle band. The past several quarters were able to hold above the key level.
The quarterly Super Guppy suggests that Bitcoin price wicked into the several layers of support, and was able to hold above the highest most line. The retest-type situation could lead to a push higher.
Holders hoping for a bottom might have already witnessed the worst. The quarterly Chaikin Money Flow reached a low at nearly the same extreme as the 2018 bear market bottom. Bitcoin price plunged 50% after already falling from $20,000 to $6,000 causing widespread capitulation across the crypto market.
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Similar capitulation might have been achieved across two large peaks and more than 50% corrections each, at a slower grind than past corrective phases. Considering this, along with several other bullish quarterly signals, the rest of the year still has a strong chance of being green.
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I’m Tony Spilotro. Behind the pseudonym, I’m a global remote work leader with a decade of award-winning content experience and excellence. Here, I explore my newfound passions pertaining to privacy, finance, economics, politics, cryptography, property rights, and other libertarian-esque views. I am a Bitcoin evangelist, maximalist, and educator whenever I can be, helping to spread its message of freedom from government control, monetary policy mismanagement, and passing the buck – literally – to future generations. My journey from a curious retail crypto investor to a serious Bitcoin advocate, trader, and technical analyst is an unusual one, but life-changing nonetheless and has become less about money and more about a long-overdue revolution. While a firm believer in the laws governing math and science, I am profoundly fascinated by the impact of astrology and astronomy including moon and solar cycles and planetary alignment and their ability to influence and potentially predict markets. It hasn’t yet clicked for me as to how to put anything to use, but I consider it my current rabbit hole I can’t yet dig out of. My perspective of growing up alongside the internet, the dot com era, the Great Recession, and roots in video games collecting coins and rare items caused Bitcoin to immediately make sense to me. Through all of these lenses, I seek to produce content that is educational and entertaining, and I thank you sincerely for taking the time to read what I have to say. Please follow me on Twitter at @tonyspilotroBTC and feel free to drop me a line if you would like to work together.
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